Issues

Growth Scenarios

Alternative Futures

Detailed Studies

GROWTH SCENARIOS


Over the next 15 years, approximately 34,000 jobs and 22,000 households are expected to be added to the Capital District region. This assumes consistent employment growth of approximately 0.5% per year and slightly less population growth at about 0.25% per year. The table below summarizes projected regional growth for three study scenarios, base, intermediate, and stimulated.

The Base Scenario assumes that the Corridor will not be able to attract as much future housing development as projected in the Urban Reinvestment Scenario developed as part of the New Visions effort by the Demographics, Land Use and Growth Futures, because of the competitiveness of outlying areas. But, the Scenario assumes that the two downtowns will be able to attract a higher proportion of future housing, because of their improved urban quality of life.

The Intermediate Scenario assumes that all three sub-areas of the Study Area will be able to attract a higher proportion of future employment growth, because of the regional accessibility of jobs within this area, its history as the employment center of the region, and other factors, such as the State's commitment to moving jobs to the Urban Cores.

The Stimulated Scenario assumes a similar distribution of future jobs and housing as the Intermediate Scenario with the exception that the downtown cores would attract a slightly smaller proportion of regional growth due to development capacity expectations in Albany and market considerations in Schenectady.

(1) Employment under CDRPC and Urban Reinvestment scenarios assumed to be the same as under the Intermediate scenario which is based on historical employment growth

Variables which might increase regional growth rates (and consequently growth rates within the Corridor) are:

  • the installation of high-speed commuter rail between Albany and Manhattan.
  • a concerted effort by the public and private sectors to capitalize on the region's quality of life; and,
  • ripple-effect benefits of improvements in the Corridor and application of these land use and transportation concepts in other parts of the Region.